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What-If Scenario Analysis

A technique that explores hypothetical situations to forecast how they could influence project objectives such as scope, schedule, cost, and quality.

Key Points

  • Tests alternative assumptions or events to see potential outcomes.
  • Supports risk, schedule, and cost decisions by revealing impacts on objectives.
  • Can be qualitative or quantitative, done manually or with modeling and simulation tools.
  • Findings guide contingency reserves, response plans, and updates to baselines.

Example

A project manager evaluates three cases for a critical component delivery: on time, 2-week delay, and partial shipment. They adjust the schedule for each case to see changes to the critical path, finish date, and costs, then decide to place a backup order and add schedule reserve.

PMP Example Question

While developing the schedule, a project manager models the effect of a 2-week outage of the testing lab on the project finish date and critical path. What technique is the manager using?

  1. Sensitivity analysis
  2. What-if scenario analysis
  3. Root cause analysis
  4. Trend analysis

Correct Answer: B — What-if scenario analysis

Explanation: The manager is examining hypothetical conditions to predict their impact on schedule objectives and the critical path.

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