HKSM

A disciplined approach to prediction and estimation that iteratively gathers input from experts until their views align into a consensus.

Key Points

• Uses multiple anonymous rounds of expert input to reduce bias and groupthink.
• A neutral facilitator summarizes results and shares feedback between rounds.
• Converges toward consensus; stop when variance is low or a set number of rounds is reached.
• Helpful for estimating cost, schedule, scope, and risk when data is limited or uncertain.

Example

A project manager needs effort estimates for a new analytics feature. She sends a questionnaire to several SMEs, collects their estimates, and shares an anonymous summary of ranges and rationales. After two more rounds of revision based on the feedback, the experts converge on a realistic effort range the team can use for planning.

PMP Example Question

A project involves unfamiliar technology, and the PM wants unbiased duration estimates without one expert dominating the discussion. Which technique should be used?

1. Delphi technique
2. Brainstorming session
3. Monte Carlo simulation
4. One-on-one expert judgment interview

Correct Answer: A — Delphi technique using anonymous expert consensus

Explanation: The Delphi technique gathers estimates from experts anonymously over multiple rounds to reduce bias and reach a consensus, unlike brainstorming, interviews, or simulation.