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uncertainty

A condition of limited knowledge or clarity about issues, events, the next course of action, or which solutions to pursue.

Key Points

  • Represents gaps in understanding about what is happening, what may happen, or how to respond.
  • Different from risk: risk involves known possibilities; uncertainty involves unknowns or unclear information.
  • Can be reduced through discovery work (spikes, prototypes), stakeholder feedback, and incremental delivery.
  • Common sources include ambiguity, complexity, novelty, changing environments, and incomplete data.

Example

An agile team starts a new product where customer needs are unclear. To address this uncertainty, they run short spikes to test assumptions, conduct user interviews, and deliver a thin slice to gather real feedback before committing to a full solution.

PMP Example Question

Which statement best describes uncertainty in a project context?

  1. A known event with a quantified probability and impact.
  2. A lack of clear knowledge about issues, future events, next steps, or viable solutions.
  3. A change request approved by the change control board.
  4. A variance between planned and actual cost performance.

Correct Answer: B — uncertainty: lack of clarity about issues, events, next steps, or solutions

Explanation: Uncertainty is about incomplete understanding or ambiguity; it is not a quantified risk, an approved change, or a cost variance.

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