HKSM
uncertainty
A condition of limited knowledge or clarity about issues, events, the next course of action, or which solutions to pursue.
Key Points
- Represents gaps in understanding about what is happening, what may happen, or how to respond.
- Different from risk: risk involves known possibilities; uncertainty involves unknowns or unclear information.
- Can be reduced through discovery work (spikes, prototypes), stakeholder feedback, and incremental delivery.
- Common sources include ambiguity, complexity, novelty, changing environments, and incomplete data.
Example
An agile team starts a new product where customer needs are unclear. To address this uncertainty, they run short spikes to test assumptions, conduct user interviews, and deliver a thin slice to gather real feedback before committing to a full solution.
PMP Example Question
Which statement best describes uncertainty in a project context?
- A known event with a quantified probability and impact.
- A lack of clear knowledge about issues, future events, next steps, or viable solutions.
- A change request approved by the change control board.
- A variance between planned and actual cost performance.
Correct Answer: B — uncertainty: lack of clarity about issues, events, next steps, or solutions
Explanation: Uncertainty is about incomplete understanding or ambiguity; it is not a quantified risk, an approved change, or a cost variance.
