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Probability and Impact Matrix

A two-axis chart that places each identified risk based on how likely it is to happen and how much it would affect project objectives if it occurs, allowing risks to be compared and prioritized.

Key Points

  • Plots probability on one axis and impact on the other to visualize risk severity.
  • Used in qualitative risk analysis to categorize and rank risks for response planning.
  • Often uses defined scales (e.g., Low/Medium/High or 1–5) with thresholds and color coding.
  • Customized to organizational risk criteria and helps decide which risks to escalate, treat, monitor, or accept.

Example

The project team lists 30 risks, rates each for likelihood and consequence on a 1–5 scale, and plots them in a 5x5 matrix. Items in the High-High area are prioritized for immediate response planning, Medium items are monitored with triggers, and Low items are placed on a watch list.

PMP Example Question

During qualitative risk analysis, the team uses a 5x5 table that maps likelihood on one axis and consequence on the other to categorize and prioritize risks. What tool are they using?

  1. Probability and Impact Matrix
  2. Risk Breakdown Structure
  3. Risk Register
  4. Sensitivity Analysis (Tornado diagram)

Correct Answer: A — Probability and Impact Matrix

Explanation: The probability and impact matrix maps the likelihood of each risk against its potential effect on project objectives to prioritize response actions.

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