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expected monetary value (EMV)

An estimate of an uncertain outcome stated in monetary units, typically computed as the probability-weighted average of all possible results.

Key Points

  • Represents the probability-weighted dollar value of uncertain outcomes.
  • Positive EMV reflects expected benefits; negative EMV reflects expected costs.
  • Commonly used in decision tree analysis and quantitative risk analysis.
  • Summing individual risk EMVs gives the overall expected impact for reserves and forecasts.

Example

A project has a 30% chance of a $50,000 cost overrun (threat) and a 20% chance of a $40,000 savings (opportunity). EMV(threat) = 0.30 x -50,000 = -15,000; EMV(opportunity) = 0.20 x 40,000 = 8,000. Net EMV = -7,000, which the PM may use to set part of the contingency reserve.

PMP Example Question

A project faces two risks: Risk 1 has a 25% chance of a $120,000 cost overrun; Risk 2 has a 40% chance of a $50,000 savings. What is the overall EMV for the project?

  1. -$30,000
  2. -$10,000
  3. $8,000
  4. -$5,000

Correct Answer: B — Net EMV is -$10,000

Explanation: EMV = (0.25 x -120,000) + (0.40 x 50,000) = -30,000 + 20,000 = -10,000.

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