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Estimate

A numeric forecast of the probable value or result of a variable, such as project cost, resource needs, effort, or schedule duration.

Key Points

  • An estimate is a forecast, not a commitment, and carries uncertainty.
  • Often expressed as a range with a confidence level and documented assumptions.
  • Based on data and techniques such as expert judgment, analogous, parametric, bottom-up, or three-point estimating.
  • Supports planning for budget, resources, schedule, and contingency reserves.

Example

The team estimates the testing phase will require 160 hours (+/- 15%), two testers, and a cost of $12,000, based on historical data and a three-point estimate.

PMP Example Question

Which statement best describes an estimate in project management?

  1. A binding commitment to deliver within a fixed cost and time.
  2. A quantitative prediction of the likely value of a variable used for planning.
  3. A qualitative opinion recorded during lessons learned.
  4. A formal change request to modify scope and budget.

Correct Answer: B — A quantitative prediction used for planning

Explanation: An estimate is a numeric forecast of a likely amount or outcome (e.g., cost, effort, duration) that informs planning and decision making, not a firm commitment.

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