HKSM
Estimate
A numeric forecast of the probable value or result of a variable, such as project cost, resource needs, effort, or schedule duration.
Key Points
- An estimate is a forecast, not a commitment, and carries uncertainty.
- Often expressed as a range with a confidence level and documented assumptions.
- Based on data and techniques such as expert judgment, analogous, parametric, bottom-up, or three-point estimating.
- Supports planning for budget, resources, schedule, and contingency reserves.
Example
The team estimates the testing phase will require 160 hours (+/- 15%), two testers, and a cost of $12,000, based on historical data and a three-point estimate.
PMP Example Question
Which statement best describes an estimate in project management?
- A binding commitment to deliver within a fixed cost and time.
- A quantitative prediction of the likely value of a variable used for planning.
- A qualitative opinion recorded during lessons learned.
- A formal change request to modify scope and budget.
Correct Answer: B — A quantitative prediction used for planning
Explanation: An estimate is a numeric forecast of a likely amount or outcome (e.g., cost, effort, duration) that informs planning and decision making, not a firm commitment.
