HKSM

A visual technique to track work progress over time. Burnup shows cumulative completed work versus total scope; burndown shows remaining work trending to zero. It supports fast status checks, forecasting, and visibility into scope changes.

Key Points

• Time is on the x-axis; work is on the y-axis, typically in story points, backlog items, or hours.
• Burnup has two lines: completed work and total scope; the vertical gap equals remaining work.
• Burndown shows remaining work approaching zero; often includes an ideal trend line for comparison.
• Updated frequently (daily in sprints) to enable timely course corrections.
• Useful at both sprint and release levels; supports adaptive and hybrid scheduling.
• Highlights schedule trends, blockers, and the impact of scope changes.
• Enables simple forecasting using recent velocity or throughput.

Purpose of Analysis

• Monitor schedule performance against a timebox or release plan.
• Forecast completion dates based on actual delivery rate.
• Expose scope growth or reduction clearly to stakeholders.
• Trigger timely discussions on capacity, risks, and impediments.
• Support data-driven decisions on scope, resources, and priorities.

Method Steps

• Choose the unit of work (story points, items, or ideal hours) and the time window (sprint or release).
• Establish the initial scope baseline and desired end date or timebox.
• Collect daily completions from the team and update cumulative totals.
• Plot burnup lines for completed work and total scope, or plot burndown for remaining work.
• Add an ideal trend line and annotate notable events such as scope changes or major blockers.
• Calculate simple forecasts using average velocity or rolling throughput.
• Review results with the team and stakeholders and agree on actions.

Inputs Needed

• Backlog with estimates in a consistent unit.
• Defined timebox length and calendar days for plotting.
• Baseline scope and any approved scope changes.
• Daily or periodic completion data from the team.
• Historical velocity or throughput for forecasting.
• Impediment and change logs for annotations.

Outputs Produced

• Updated burnup or burndown chart showing current status.
• Short-term and projected completion forecasts.
• Variance insights versus the ideal or planned trend.
• Visible record of scope changes and their timing.
• Recommended actions such as scope adjustment or capacity changes.

Interpretation Tips

• Burndown above the ideal line indicates behind plan; below indicates ahead.
• Flat sections suggest blockers or lack of completed work.
• Burnup scope line stepping up shows added scope; if completion rate is steady, expect a later finish.
• Diverging burnup lines mean growing gap to completion; converging lines signal progress toward done.
• Use a rolling average velocity to smooth volatility for forecasts.
• Annotate anomalies to prevent misinterpretation by stakeholders.

Example

A two-week sprint starts with 40 story points. The team completes 8, 7, and 5 points over the first three days, then adds a 5-point change on day 4.

• Burndown shows remaining work drop from 40 to 20 by day 3, then jump to 25 on day 4 due to scope increase.
• Burnup shows completed rising to 20 by day 3 while the scope line steps from 40 to 45 on day 4, keeping the gap visible.
• Using a velocity of about 7 points per day, the forecast suggests finishing near the end of the timebox if impediments are removed.

Pitfalls

• Mixing units of measure mid-sprint, making the trend unreliable.
• Updating infrequently, which hides emerging schedule issues.
• Ignoring scope changes on a burndown, leading to misleading “behind plan” signals.
• Over-relying on straight-line projections despite changing capacity or holidays.
• Counting started work as completed, which inflates progress.
• Not annotating major events, causing stakeholders to misread the chart.

PMP Example Question

A Scrum team’s burndown is trending above the ideal line, and mid-sprint the Product Owner adds two user stories. What should the project manager use to clearly show the impact of the added scope while maintaining transparent schedule monitoring?

1. Switch to a cumulative flow diagram to show work-in-progress states.
2. Use a burnup chart that displays both completed work and total scope lines.
3. Rebaseline the burndown so it matches the new target and hides variance.
4. Extend the sprint length to restore the burndown to the ideal line.

Correct Answer: B — Use a burnup chart that displays both completed work and total scope lines.

Explanation: Burnup charts explicitly show scope additions on the scope line while tracking completed work. This keeps schedule performance transparent without masking variance or changing the timebox.