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Rolling Wave Planning

A step-by-step planning approach where near-term work is fully detailed, while activities further out are kept as high-level outlines and elaborated as they get closer.

Key Points

  • Plans are developed in waves: immediate work is decomposed now; distant work stays coarse until more is known.
  • Supports progressive elaboration and reduces rework by avoiding premature detail on far-future tasks.
  • Works well in agile and hybrid settings, aligning with backlog refinement, release planning, and program increment planning (e.g., SAFe).
  • Requires regular review points to update assumptions, refine scope, and synchronize stakeholders.

Example

A product team running a year-long initiative breaks down the next two sprints into user stories with estimates and acceptance criteria, while leaving later quarters as high-level epics. As each quarter approaches, they detail those epics into stories during refinement and update the plan based on new information.

PMP Example Question

A project manager decomposes work for the next month into detailed tasks and keeps work for later months at a high level to be refined during future planning cycles. Which technique is being used?

  1. Parametric estimating
  2. Rolling wave planning
  3. Critical path method
  4. Fast tracking

Correct Answer: B — Rolling wave planning

Explanation: Rolling wave planning details near-term work while deferring detailed planning for future work until more information is available.

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