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Expected Monetary Value

A method for quantifying risk in monetary terms by estimating its Expected Monetary Value (EMV). EMV is computed by multiplying the potential financial impact by the probability of occurrence, using the customer-provided probability estimate.

Key Points

  • Formula: EMV = probability x monetary impact (negative for threats, positive for opportunities).
  • Used in quantitative risk analysis to prioritize risks and size contingency reserves.
  • Can be applied to individual risks and aggregated across multiple risks or decision tree branches.
  • Relies on realistic probability and impact estimates; document assumptions behind the numbers.

Example

A supplier delay could add $50,000 in costs, and the customer estimates a 30% chance of it occurring. EMV = 0.30 x -$50,000 = -$15,000. The project may allocate $15,000 to the contingency reserve for this risk.

PMP Example Question

A risk has a 25% probability of causing $80,000 in extra costs. What is the EMV of this risk?

  1. $80,000
  2. -$20,000
  3. $20,000
  4. -$80,000

Correct Answer: B — -$20,000

Explanation: EMV = probability x impact = 0.25 x -$80,000 = -$20,000. Threats have negative EMV.

AI Systems with Claude, for Scrum Masters and Project Managers

Most AI pilots in project management do not fail on the model. They fail because somebody pointed the thing at a decision instead of at a task. This course is built around that distinction, and around the work that follows once you get it right.

Seven sections, taught against one running project from the first lecture to the last. You watch a system get built, then you build the same one against your own sprint. Nothing here is a demo that works only on the example.

You finish with five working systems and you keep them. The sprint report machine turns your board export and standup notes into the report you currently write by hand. The retro intelligence system tells you what the team keeps saying, not just what it said this time. The stakeholder comms engine drafts the update in the register the audience expects. The backlog health monitor flags the quiet decay nobody has time to check for. The risk and dependency tracker follows the chains that actually bite.

Seventy-six working files ship with it, across four sections, so every system is built against real sprint data rather than material invented for a slide. Four sprints of retrospectives, board exports, standup notes, backlog and risk data.

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